BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

Bez kategoriilip 13 20190 Comment

There is a good deal of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I will be going thicker than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than normal. This is the first time we’ve seen a $30k top prize so I think it’s well worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from this fight against Brian Ortega, thus we’re now down to 11 fights and we should observe a great deal of ties on this card together with the popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the remainder of the field. That said, let us get to a few plays I like in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass in cash games which makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this fight, he must be highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird since I literally just chose Paul Felder because my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups didn’t have him and you merely need to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am guessing Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the area that is dead without a shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you also get a triumph using the low owned guy to put you in a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it truly shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 decades ago, but today we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the struggle which will give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken I believe he will be able to get back up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a determination then I think he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can save salary on your lineups. I can even find this battle ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the fight, but I do not find him paying off that high price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the ground is where he will have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I need at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I’d rather pay up for the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:

http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks